Finland 2025

19/01/2025: Finnish media Ilta-Sanomat asked Supo what threat does IS currently pose to Finland security, especially in the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad's downfall on December 8, 2024 and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) in Syria. According to Supo's reply, even though IS Caliphate collapsed in 2019, the group is still active in Syrian borderlands and the political mayhem resulting from the power vacuum may grant new opportunities to spread terror and violence, unless HTS proves able to fill the void and establish a relevant political order. The main source of concern shared by Supo was the potential impact on the Northern regions controlled by Kurdish authorities were IS fighters and sympathizers are still detained including ten Finns, most of whom are children. Over 80 Finns departed to Syria throughout the 2010's and some brought along 30 children or even conceived new ones in the Caliphate. Most were repatriated but neither the fighters, nor the mere sympathizers, were prosecuted for the crimes committed in Syria and their involvement in a terrorist organization upon their return to Finland. (Source) 

24/01/2025: Consul Jussi Tanner who serves as special envoy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in charge of repatriating the Finnish children of foreign fighters and sympathizers affiliated to IS who are still detained in Northern Syria, expressed concerns over the security situation that may result from the new Government formed by HTS that does not tolerate the role of Kurdish authorities in the Northern provinces especially in the al-Hol and al-Roj camps where thousands of people, mostly children and their mothers, are detained. Around 40,000 people are located in the al-Hol camp including ten Finns who are being held in a separate, closed zone with other third-country Nationals according to Tanner. However, their relocation to unspecified areas of Syria is already under process and it has not been confirmed if this will be implemented in cooperation with the new authorities of Damascus, hence the security risk that is being stressed by Tanner. The last repatriation to Finland took place in May 2024 with American and Koweiti contributions, and the remainder of the Finnish detainees rejected any assistance from Finnish auhorities. (Source)

28/01/2025: The District Court declared dead a Finnish man from Pirkanmaa who was reported missing in the spring of 2018 when he was under 30-year-old. He converted at the age of 15 to Islam and disappeared from his family for the first time in 2014. At first, he announced that he was going on a vacation to the cottage, but had disappeared without his family knowing for ten days. In September 2014, he had booked a trip to Istanbul, via Paris, and joined the ranks of IS but he still kept in touch with his family from November 2014 to January 2017 on a streaming website. When a close relative contacted the police again in the spring of 2018, nothing had been heard from the man for over a year. His family felt that he could possible have died since the end of 2017 and no information has been received about the missing man since then. The five-year waiting period to be observed when declaring someone dead had already expired so the District Court ultimately declared the man dead. (Source)

04/03/2025: Supo published its National Security Review for 2025. Interestingly, the previous three-level scale was reshaped into a new more flexible one that allows smaller changes to be taken into account in the threat assessment. Henceforth, Finland has a five-level scale and the current threat on this new scale is level three, or elevated which represents a slight increase compared to the previous level. According to Supo, several simultaneous negative developments have occurred in the international security situation and are also influencing the threat of terrorism in Finland. Negative developments include conflicts in the Middle East, ISIS networks operating in Europe, international Far-Right networks, and the radicalization of minors online. The latter was reported as a key international trend. It is also obvious in Finland, both in the Islamist and Far-Right ecosystems. Islamist activity in Finland still focuses mainly on supporting international terrorism, such as spreading and producing propaganda, financing terrorism, and growing support networks.

The most likely Islamist terrorist attack in Finland would involve simple tools and occur in a public place. Radical Islamist propaganda encourages violence against groups perceived as hostile to Islam, including Christians, Jews, Israel, and sexual minorities. Although terrorist organizations continue to target Western countries, a large-scale attack in Finland is unlikely. Islamist activity in Finland mainly supports international terrorism through propaganda, financing, and growing support networks. Recent international developments have increased the threat of Islamist terrorism against Finland. The desecration of the Quran and escalating Middle Eastern conflicts have intensified radicalization in Europe, contributing to an increase in terrorist attacks and foiled attack plans. IS and its Afghanistan branch (ISKP) have become more active in Europe, with particular involvement from Central Asian and Caucasian radical Islamists. Finland's Security Police (KRP) is investigating IS-related activities with support from intelligence gathered by the Security Police.

The biggest global terrorist threats remain IS, Al-Qaeda, and their affiliated groups, which continue to encourage attacks on Western countries. These groups primarily operate in unstable regions of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, attempting to recruit foreign fighters. In Iraq and Syria, IS has continued its operations and tried to inspire attacks in Europe. The rise of HTS in Syria is likely to expand IS' operational freedom in the region, with broader impacts over time. There are still around 50 individuals from Finland in the conflict zones, though most are presumed dead. The threat of other terrorism in Finland remains low. (Source)

28/03/2025: The Finnish National Criminal Police reported that it has almost completed its preliminary investigation into two Finnish women who returned from al-Hol camp. Both are suspected of aggravated human trafficking. One of the women is "Sanna" who returned to Finland in December 2020 while the other one referred to as "Doris" from Vantaa reportedly returned in December 2021. The victims of the crimes are the women's children. Both women traveled to the conflict zone in Syria with their minor children. Although Sanna managed to come back to Finland along with all of her four children, two of Doris' children died in Syria and the remaining two others joined their mother back to Finland. One of them was the young man who was repatriated to Finland in May 2024 after spending six years in a Kurdish detention center. Should the investigation process be successfully completed and charges ultimately considered against both women, this will be the first case of prosecution in Finland against IS returnees, something that the country never implemented before which triggered much criticism back in September 2023. Aggravated human trafficking can result in a prison sentence of 2–10 years according to Finnish Law. (Source)